Trends between elections (2017-)
Clicking on the party names in the legend disables/enables the party while double-clicking singles the party out. The vertical lines represent the elections (full=national; dashed=european).
The model was created with LOESS on the mean fieldwork of the polls. Variants (e.g. with/without alliances), exit and Euroelection polls (lower turnout rate than the response rates of polls), as well as polls with unknown fieldwork dates were excluded from the model (shown as empty rings in the graph). The model's smoothing was optimised using the Mean absolute confidence percentage error on each period separately.